1. Estimate QCD background in the intermediate
region
Region B: met<15.0, isol<0.1 ---> Region B': met<15.0,
0.1<isol<0.2
Region D: met>20.0, isol<0.1 ---> Region D': met>20.0,
0.1<isol<0.2
From the standard MET vs ISO method
and using intermediate region B' we estimate the number of non-W events
in region D'. The results are shown in the following table
in the row "Predicted non-W events". The errors quoted in the table are
statistical only.
Alternatively, we study the sample
compisition in region D as shown in the following plot.
Colors in the plots are: blue=W+jets; red=ttbar (6.1pb^-1), and yellow=MC-derived,
black points are data in region D and red points are data in region D'.
We then extrapolate the contribution
of W+HF, ttbar and MC derived backgrounds to region D' in the ratios predicted
by the MC. Comparing these contributions with data we extract an independent
estimate of the non-W fraction in region D', shown in row "Expected non-W
fraction". The relative difference between the "Predicted" and "Expected"
non-W fractions is also shown in the table. With the exception of the 1
jet bin for muons, this difference is always smaller than the 50% systematic
uncertainty on the predicted non-W fraction.
The systematic uncertainty is taken
from the standard mesurement, which is estimated by looking at the change
in the non-W fraction predicted in the signal region for different definitions
of the sideband regions. In particular, we tried to move the upper limit
on the missing transverse energy in regions A and B and the lower limit
on the lepton isolation in regions A and C. We show the variations on the
predicted non W fraction in the electron (met,iso)
and muon samples (met,iso)
separately, from which the 50% systematic uncertainty is assigned.
2A. Show numbers for Mistags and W+HF
before and after the correction
Click here
to see the numbers of expected events for each background and for the 4
analyses before and after the correction
2B. I checked the corrected and raw
background rates for summary table. One question is that why (corrected)/(raw)
were different between mistag and W+HF? For example, in the >= 4 jet bin
for 1 tag at 1%, 4.3/6.8 for mistag, but 1/3 for W+HF.
We have found a bug in the corrected
mistag computation. As shown in the table above, after fixing this the
ratios are: 2.2/6.8 for mistag and 1.1/3.3 for W+HF
3. Measure the inclusive muon W cross
section
The following table
shows our W cross section measured in the electron and muon channels separately.
The electron channel is in excellent agreement with the CDF measurement.
For the muon channel, the cross section is higher.
Following the standard prescription,
we apply a cut of Chi^2 probability > 10^-8 for the COT track matched to
the muon. We use two different values of the Scale Factors (SF) between
MC and data. The agreement with the CDF measurement improves considerably.
Results are shown in this table. The table
also shows the variation of our ttbar cross section measurement applying
the Chi^2 probability cut. Since the effect is small and there is an uncertainty
related to the efficiency of this cut, we decide not to apply it in the
final results.
See Appendix E in our note (7697)
4A. Why your observed data for the
one jet bin is below the total contribution while for SecVtx it is above?
Compare backgrounds in one jet bin with SecVtx
4B. Can you explain the negative tag
rate which, in the 1 jet bin, is ~0.9 for JP and 1.2 for SecVtx"?
4C. Can you check #mistag events in
W+2jet bin between JP and SECVTX? In W+1, there is a large discrepancy.
In the next table we show the number
of expected events for each background in the 1 jet bin for both taggers,
SecVtx and Jet Probability (1%). The number in brackets is the ratio (in
%) between this number and the number of oberved data in each bin:
1 Jet bin
SecVtx
JP (1%)
MC Derived
11.13 (2.61 %)
9.3 (2.66 %)
Non-W
37.23 (8.72 %)
30.5 (8.71 %)
Mistag
93.08 (21.80 %)
149.7 (42.77 %)
Wc
98.9 (23.16 %)
86.4 (24.69 %)
Wcc
33.25 (7.79 %)
31.2 (8.91 %)
Wbb
98.13 (22.98 %)
83.0 (23.71 %)
Total bkg.
371.71 (87.05 %)
390.2 (111.49 %)
Observed data
427
350
Numbers for SecVtx are taken from table
18 in CDF Note 7536 (v3.2 from July 13) and numbers for JP are taken from
table 19 in CDF Note 7697. The main difference comes from the mistag contribution.
Our estimate is a factor ~2 with respect to the one of SecVtx.
Using the mistag matrix, we predict
100.6 events in the 1 jet bin what is consistent with the calculated negative
tag rate. We start from 11324 negative taggable jets what gives us a negative
tag rate of 0.88 while the negative tag rate is 0.8 for Jet20 and 1.2 for
Jet50 (CDF Note 7442). And as in the 1 jet bin the jet Et distribution
peaks at ~15 GeV (click here to see the jet et distributions
of the positive and negative taggable jets of the pretag events for electrons
in red, muons in green and total in blue) the 0.8 factor will be the dominant
one. So our prediction is consistent.
We could not perform a similar
break-down of effects to arrive at the 1.2 from SecVtx because their analysis
is done in a different way.
The final mistag contribution is the
number predicted by the mistag matrix scaled by our mistag asymmetry of
1.57 and corrected for the non-W, single top and EW contributions to the
pretag sample.
Taking into account ONLY the statistical
uncertainty on the number of observed events, the agreement with the total
predicted background is -2.1 sigma (stat only) for the 1 jet bin and +2.2
sigma (stat only) for the 2 jet bin (see table below). For SecVtx these
numbers are +2.7 sigma and +4.1 sigma respectively.
2 Jets bin
SecVtx
JP (1%)
MC Derived
19.59 (8.44 %)
16.6 (8.69 %)
Non-W
15.91 (6.86 %)
8.6 (4.50 %)
Mistag
38.23 (16.49 %)
52.1 (27.78 %)
Wc
20.78 (8.96 %)
19.2 (10.05 %)
Wcc
19.92 (8.57 %)
17.5 (9.16 %)
Wbb
54.39 (23.44 %)
47.2 (24.71 %)
Total bkg.
168.81 (72.76 %)
161.1 (84.35%)
Observed data
232
191
5. What is your prefered, a priori,
analysis?
The single tag at 1% seems to have
the best compromise between background contamination, statistics, and systematics.
The systematic uncertainty for the
single tag analysis at 1% and 5% are very similar now because they are
dominated by the scale factor. As one moves from 1% to 5%, the mistags
increase much more than the ttbar signal. A better understanding of the
SF would benefit the 1% analysis more than the 5%. The following tables
table
1% and table 5% show the summary of systematic
uncertainties for the single tag analysis at 1% and 5%, respectively.
Since we are no longer in a low statistics
regime, we can choose to work with a cleaner sample.
6. Estimate the mistag contribution
to the signal
In the previous version of this analysis,
the event tagging efficiency was calculated by applying the SF to the tagged
jets in the event, with the caveat that the MC could not describe correctly
the tag rate for light jets.
Motivated by this question, we estimated
this possible bias by applying the mistag matrix to the light jets in the
ttbar MC. The results and comparison between the previous and current approaches
are shown in this table.
When we apply the mistag matrix to
light jets in the signal MC we observe a relative increase of about 0.5%
(2%) in the efficiency of finding at least 1 (2) tags. This increase quantifies
the bias due to poorly simulated mistags in the signal MC.
Even if this effect is small, we use
the second method which in principle it is more accurate. The systematic
uncertainty is estimated by scaling the SF by ± 1 sigma.
7. Split the analysis for electrons
and muons
Click here
to see the results. See also Appendix D of our note (7697) for details.
8. Compare with SecVtx the background
contribution in the double tag analysis
In the next table we show the number
of expected double tagged events for each background and for each jet bin
for both taggers, SecVtx and Jet Probability (1%).
2 jets (SecVtx)
2 jets (JP, 1%)
3 jets (SecVtx)
3 jets (JP, 1%)
>=4 jets (SecVtx)
>=4 jets (JP, 1%)
MC Derived
1.89 ± 0.29
1.4 ± 0.3
0.42 ± 0.09
0.33 ± 0.07
0.12 ± 0.03
0.10 ± 0.02
Non-W
0.31 ± 0.20
0.19 ± 0.12
0.31 ± 0.18
0.029 ± 0.018
0.57 ± 1.38
0.045 ± 0.030
Mistags
0.48 ± 0.11
0.21 ± 0.05
0.10 ± 0.04
0.097 ± 0.022
0.22 ± 0.04
0.12 ± 0.03
W+HF
8.25 ± 2.86
6.7 ± 2.1
0.89 ± 0.32
1.1 ± 0.3
0.26 ± 0.12
0.71 ± 0.24
Observed data
15
13
15
12
18
18
Total background
10.93 ± 2.89
8.5 ± 2.3
1.71 ± 0.38
1.5 ± 0.4
1.17 ± 0.12
0.97 ± 0.25
Numbers for SecVtx are taken from table
18 in CDF Note 7536 and numbers for JP are taken from table 25 in CDF Note
7697.
The total backgrounds are consistent
between the two analysis. It should be noted that the mistags in the double
tagged sample are calculated differently for the two analysis. We calculate
our mistags by applying the mistag matrix to the pretag sample.
The difference in the double tag cross
sections between JetProb and SecVtx could not in any case be explained
by the difference in backgrounds, which are small in the double tag sample.
Although the limited statistics do not allow to draw a significant conclusion,
the number of observed events does not seem to scale with the efficiencies*SF
between the two analysis.
We estimate by running pseudo-experiments
the probability to measure our double tag cross section given the single
tag measurement. We do this for different values of the scale factor (SF)
and find the following values:
SF - sigma
SF
SF + sigma
JP < 1%
4.5 %
13.2 %
30 %
JP < 5%
2.8%
15.6 %
35 %
The probabilities above correspond
to the following cross-sections
SF - sigma
SF
SF + sigma
JP < 1%, >=1 tag
9.8 +1.1-1.0 ±1.2
8.9 +1.0-0.9 ±1.1
8.3 +1.0-0.9 ±1.0
JP < 1%, >=2 tag
13.3 +2.8-2.3 ±2.5
11.1 +2.3-1.9 ±1.9
9.4 +2.0-1.7 ±1.5
JP < 5%, >=1 tag
10.5 +1.1-1.0 ±1.3
9.6 +1.0-0.9 ±1.2
9.0 +1.0-0.9 ±1.1
JP < 5%, >=2 tag
13.7 +2.0-1.7 ±2.5
11.6 +1.7-1.5 ±1.9
9.9 +1.5-1.3 ±1.5
9A. Produce plots of all relevant jetprob
tagging variables (in a similar style to the njet plot) using the measured
cross section for the normalization. The SecVtx analysis shows these
plots in the end of 7536, for example. It would be nice to see them
for the 1% cross section for >=1 tag and double tag events separately.
9B. Jet Eta_{D}: Do you have comment?
Do you have a peak at ~ -1?
Click here to see the plots for the
single
and double tag analises with JP<1%.
Click here to see the plots for the
single
and double tag analises with JP<5%.
The detector eta distributions do not
have a peak at -1. Rather, there seems to be a slight asymmetry in data
between positive and negative detector eta, with more jets in the negative
eta region, which the MC does not reproduce. This is also observed in other
analysis, like the SecVtx selection. A possible explanation might be that,
since the negative eta region is the one that sees the incoming proton
beam, there might be higher activity in this region due to beam halo, or
it might be a residual asymmetric detector response not fully absorbed
by the jet corrections. These are all untested hypothesis.
10. The Harvard group also has a very
nice "event display" that they show for their double tagged events (see
7699). They might be willing to share this macro so that you could
make the same plots for your double tags. It's very interesting to
look at the tagged jets in this way
We provide event display plots of our
30 double-tag events at 1% using the script borrowed from Harvard (thanks!).
For comparison we also show 30 ttbar MC (ttopel) events which pass the
same selection.
11. Why do you use uncorrected jet
Et for the parameterization? I guess it makes little difference in the
end...
We use uncorrected jet Et because this
way the tag rate matrices can be used by everybody independently of the
level of corrections they choose to make in their particular analysis.
I believe this is the way both SecVtx and JetProb matrices have been defined
(and blessed). If the concern has to do with a slightly shifted Et spectrum
between the uncorrected jets used to parameterize the matrix and the jets
used in the analysis, the short answer is indeed that it makes little difference,
and the long answer was given at the blessing of the 5.3.3 Tag Rate Matrix,
in the second bullet of this link
12. It seems that the pos-neg asymmetry
still needs to be studied (for SecVtx pos mistag ~1.25*neg mistags) [i
just noticed you mention that you're working on this: great]
We have indeed performed a mistag asymmetry
study which is documented in note 7696 and which was accepted at the pre-blessing
by the top and the high pt B-tagging groups
We have performed a study of the Et
dependence of the mistag asymmetry. An additional uncertainty due to this
Et dependence is added to the total systematic uncertainty. The mistag
asymmetry changes from 1.57 ± 0.15 to 1.57 ± 0.18 for JP<1%
and 1.27 ± 0.17 to 1.27 ± 0.20 for JP<5%. Note 7696 has
been updated.
Efficiency note (7444):
13. I'd forgotten the scale factor
was so low: did JetProb see any improvement gen4->gen5? (should check this
myself...)
The scale factors for Gen4 are 0.787±0.105
and 0.820±0.095 for 1% and 5% JP cuts, respectively.
The scale factors for Gen5 are 0.817±0.070
and 0.852±0.072 for 1% and 5% JP cuts, respectively.
14A. Scale factor vs. et is measured
in incl electron, jet50 (herwig&pythia), then weighted average is taken
as slope, and this slope used to set a systematic. In the 5% jetprob cut,
the slope comes out at more or less 0, whereas inclusive electron slope
is 2 sigma negative, Jet50 pythia 2 sigma positive, and pythia within 1
sigma of 0. The chisquared of the combination isn't so small. Perhaps you
should use a larger slope to set your systematic less agressively?
14B. Do you have chi2 values for combined
slope calculation in the note?
The slopes measured in the inclusive
electron and Jet50 samples are the following:
Sample
JP<1%
JP<5%
Inclusive electrons
-0.0044 ± 0.0056
-0.0062 ± 0.0060
Jet50
0.0005 ± 0.0008
0.0004 ± 0.0009
Weighted average
0.0004 ± 0.0008
0.0003 ± 0.0009
(Table 13 in the note has a typo
for the weighted average at 1% which will be revised.)
In all cases we measure a slope which
is consistent with zero. One measurement, however, is much more accurate
than the other (because the Jet50 sample has much higher statistics at
high Et). We could either just keep the more accurate measurement, or take
the weighted average, which in this case is almost the same thing. Setting
the systematics this way does not seem so aggresive. Clearly the difference
between the two numbers is not a reasonable estimate of the uncertainty
given the large difference in precision between them.
The note does not have a chi^2 value
for the combined slope. The combined slope would be dominated in any case
by the Jet50 measurement, for which the fits are shown in the following
figures (see figure 14 of note 7444):
Although the chi^2 is not shown,
the fit is seen to be reasonably good.
Xsec note (7697):
15. It looks like you repeated this
scale factor vs et study here: I see a similar situation.
See answer to question 14. Numbers
in table 1 of note 7697 were old (from Gen4). The Gen5 numbers (from 7444)
are the correct ones in the updated note.
16A. Do you understand why the new
5cm vtx cut has different effs in data/MC? is it related to multiple interactions?
Is #zvtx well described, for example?
Events lost in the data when applying
this cut are events in which the vertex closet to the lepton track is farther
than 5 cm (in z) from the highest sumPt vertex. This effect probably arises
due to multiple interactions, for which we do not trust the MC would give
an accurate description. Fortunately the efficiency of the cut is close
to 100% for both data and MC so we do not worry about taking the difference
between them as a systematic uncertainty.
Plots of the number of vertices and
of good quality vertices in data (high Pt lepton) vs MC (ttbar) are shown
here.
The MC predicts less number of vertices, i.e., it underestimates the effects
of multiple interactions, and therefore has a higher efficiency than the
data for the cut in vtx-z.
16B. Multiple interaction: If you have
time, can you check multiple interaction effects using ttbar with minbias
MC sample. (we have it officially)
We have calculated the efficiency of
the vertex-z cut in two more ttbar samples with min bias: ttop7v and ttop5v.
The table below summarizes the efficiencies of this cut for data and for
the different MC samples.
Sample
VTX-Z cut efficiency
ttopel
100%
ttop5v
99.4%
ttop7v
98.6%
data
98%
17. I guess fig 14 will look less frightening
if you use a MC with mt=174...!
The theoretical cross section for top
masses near 175 GeV increases by about 0.2 pb for every GeV that the mass
goes down. At mt=174 GeV the cross section is close to 6.9 pb. The plot
would look slightly less scary, we would still be measuring a cross section
higher than the theoretical prediction, but in both cases the excess is
not statistically significant. The signal MC used to calculate the acceptance
and to make the kinematic plots has Mtop=178 GeV. We do not think it is
worth the effort to redo the analysis using a lower mass MC at this point.