CDF Statistics Committee Recommendations

• Cut methods

• Likelihood/probability density estimation

• Neural networks

• Support vector machines

Notes

Separating Samples- G. Punzi

Optimizing Searches - G. Punzi

• Probability distributions

• Chi square or likelihood?

• Writing likelihood functions

• Function minimization methods

Notes

Likelihood - L. Lyons

Maximum Likelihood Primer - C. Blocker

Comments on Likelihood Fits with Variable Resolutions - G. Punzi

Efficiency Uncertainties - A Bayesian Prescription - J. Conway

Uncertainties on Efficiencies - C. Blocker

Coverage of Error Bars for Poisson Data - J. Heinrich

A Guide to the Pearson Type IV Distribution - J. Heinrich

Detecting a Bad Random Number Generator - J. Heinrich

TRandom Pitfalls - J. Heinrich

• Estimating systematic uncertainties

• Incorporating systematic uncertainties

Notes

What is Systematics - Giovanni Punzi (Mar 2001)

Incorporating Systematics in Limits - Giovanni Punzi (July 2003)

Systematic Uncertainties - Craig Blocker' (March 2001)

A Convolution Method for Folding Systematic Uncertainties into Likelihood Functions - Luc Demortier (June 2005)

Systematic Uncertainties in the CDF sin(2 beta) Measurement - Craig Blocker (May 2001)

Roger Barlow's SLAC User's Organization talk on Systematic Uncertainties

Calculation of Cross section Upper Limits Combining Channels and Incorporating Correlated and Uncorrelated Systematic Errors - John Conway

• Frequentist versus Bayes statistics

• Recommendations Concerning Limits

  • Recommendations Concerning Limits (plain text version)

  • Setting limits (confidence intervals)

• Signal significance

• Goodness-of-fit

• Hypothesis testing

Notes

Joel Heinrich et al. Interval Estimation... 1. Bayesian approach CDF note 7117 (September 2004)

Craig Blocker, Interval Estimation... 2. Cousins and Highland Method CDF note 7539 (May 2006)

Limits and Confidence Intervals in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters W. A. Rolke, A. M. Lopez, J. Conrad, F. James (August 2004)

A Fully Bayesian Computation of Upper Limits for Poisson Processes Luc Demortier (October 2004)

Bayes or Frequentism?- Louis Lyons (September 2002)

Comparing Two Hypotheses - Louis Lyons (August 1999)

Methods for comparing two hypotheses - Louis Lyons (April 2009)

Pulls- Louis Lyons and Luc Demortier

Signal Significance in Particle Physics - Pekka Sinervo (July 2002)

Simple facts about p-values - CDF Statistics Committee (January 2006)

A Bayes Factor Example: Poisson Discovery - Joel Heinrich (February 2009)

Assessing the significance of a deviation in the tail of a distribution - Luc Demortier (November 1995)

Constructing Ensembles of Pseudo-Experiments - Luc Demortier (September 2003)

The evaluation of upper limits for top quark production using combined measurements - R. Hollebeek, H.H. Williams and P. Sinervo, CDF Note 1109 (January 1990)

Blind Analyses - J. Heinrich, CDF note 6576 (August 2003)

Blind Analyses - Paul Harrison, Proceedings of the Conference on Advanced Statistical Techniques in Particle Physics, M. Whalley and L. Lyons, eds. (July 2002)

Blind Analysis in Particle Physics - Aaron Roodman, PHYSTAT2003 (September 2003)

• Error Bars for Poisson Data

Notes